It's the time of year for being Thankful, and this year I'm more Thankful than ever for DFS.
All offseason you took notes of the Free agent moves - Brady signed with The Bucs and the 20 year marriage of Brady/Belichick was over, your jaw dropped when you saw the blockbuster trade that sent Deandre Hopkins to Arizona and had everyone scratching their heads as to what the Texans were doing.
You watched the draft and saw studs like Gibson, Dobbins, and Taylor get drafted into offenses that you thought they could run away with. You debated your friends as to which talented rookie Wide Receiver would be taken first and whether Lamb, Jeudy, Ruggs, or Jefferson would have the biggest rookie impact. You had no real clarity on who was leading the pack and climbing up draft boards because covid wiped away the preseason and you questioned if all the research you did for your draft would even matter... would there even be a season?
We had some early season scares and some rescheduled games but fast forward to week 12 and your deadlocked into the playoff race in your season long league, watching your starting lineup get decimated, again. You've lost studs all year long such as Barkley, Kittle, Sutton, but you've played the waiver wire, made trades, and weathered the storm. You've made key additions such as Robinson and Mike Davis on the waiver wire, but lady luck is just not on your side as covid rears it's ugly head yet again.
Sure your season is likely over but this is why we have Daily Fantasy Sports. Who gives a shit about your season long league when you can win thousands in one afternoon?
Grab another plate of Turkey Day leftovers and join me in reviewing this DFS Main Slate that is more full than your stomach after thirds on Thanksgiving.
For Cash games on Draft Kings this week, the hardest decision for me is the Quarterback. Do I pay all the way up for Murray or Mahomes, go just below them with Josh Allen and Justin Herbert, or drop down to Taysom Hill at $6200... and yet will Fitz have any magic left for us at $5500 if Tua sits?
Quarterbacks
Taysom Hill - $6200
Taysom Hill absolutely smashed for me last week at $4800 because not only was he 5X, but his price allowed me to stuff a bunch of studs into my lineups like Cook, Adams, and Allen.
This week he's up to $6200 and for that price, I'd rather pay another 1K and go with Justin Herbert. The Broncos defense is definitely better than the Falcons and - although Hill's passing was better than I expected - Hill made simple throws to Michael Thomas, and I think Fangio's defense can give him headaches if he is forced to go to his 2nd read. He has running upside and I'll probably have a few lineups with Hill in at QB, but I'll pay a little more for a much safer cash play.
Justin Herbert - $7200
Buffalo is allowing the 4th most points to opposing Quarterbacks this season and Justin Herbert has not had under 21 points in PPR formats in 8 games this season - and that was only his 2nd start! With a 53 point game total, he's my QB1 this week on Draft Kings.
Josh Allen - $7600
On the other side of that game is Josh Allen - the other big Arm young QB and this one does a lot of running with the football. He's had a few duds in there but his ceiling is 35 points and most weeks he's good for 20+ points. Against that Chargers defense, he's a safe cash play this week and a little bit of salary relief from Murray/Mahomes.
Other Hot Plays: Murray, Mahomes.
RunningBacks
Dalvin Cook - $9500
Sure he's $9500 but He's Dalvin Cook and he's going against Carolina. He's getting over 20 carries a game, he's an elite talent, and he's in a great matchup... Do not over think this.
Dive Play Alert (5K or Under)
Wayne Gallman - $5000
The Giants are favored against Cincinnati... a team that just lost Joe Burrow for the season. They're horrible and the game script sets up perfectly for Gallman who's clearly the lead back. There isn't much this week at RB so plug Gallman in at 5K and be done with it!
Brian Hill - $4000
Gurley is out and Brian Hill is in. He does have a passing game role as well, so he's a safe play on Draft Kings at $4000. This game has a high total and the Raiders are giving up the 3rd most Fantasy points to RB'S. There's not a ton of value in Cash this week so take it where you can get it.
Other RB's: Jordan Wilkins, Nyheim Hines, Myles Gaskin (if active)
Wide Receivers:
This is the only spot where I have a hard time paying up for Dalvin Cook, and if there was a legit, cash viable option in the 7K range, I'd surely go there so I can stuff Hill/Diggs/Allen into a lineup.
Keenan Allen - $8000
He has a 30% target share on the season and last week we saw his ceiling on Draft Kings in a 38 point performance. This is one of the highest scoring games on the slate and he is certainly the man in cash to pay up for, even at his 8K Price tag.
Tyreek Hill - $7800
Tyreek Hill tweeted recently, "Am I a WR1 yet?" He most certainly is, and this is a game with a 56 point total against a defense that is stout against the run. Fire up the Cheetah.
Stefon Diggs - $7600
In a game that has shootout potential beyond the 53 point projected total, and he sees 30% target share much like Allen. They could both go off in this game and should both provide a safe floor.
Other Hot Plays: Justin Jefferson, Jakobi Meyers.
Dive Plays: Gabriel Davis, Jakeem Grant, Nelson Agholor, Darius Slayton.
Tight Ends:
The studs this week are clearly the same two you always see: (Minus Kittle) Kelce and Waller, but at 7K and 6K, I just can't see enough value to pay all the way up this week. Ah, what the hell, I'll pay up for Waller.
Darren Waller - $6000
Atlanta has been torched by tight ends all season and Carr has looked great recently while throwing to Waller. More of that please!
Dive Plays:
Jordan Reed - $3600
He got 6 targets in week 10 and had a week off to heal any ailments (we know health has always been his issue.)The Shanahan offense targets tight ends which is good because the Rams defense funnels targets to the Tight end position.
Kyle Rudolph - $2800
Both Irv Smith and Thielen are out so why not? He won't need much at all to pay off in cash and is a clear smash spot for a tight end punt at $2800.
Defense:
There are really 2 options for me this week, either you pay up a little at $3100 and go with the Browns, or pay down to $2100 for the Jets.
Browns - $3100
They were the number one Defense in the league last week as we talked about on the podcast and are going against Mike Glennon. They are aggressive with 9 interceptions on the season and could be a great DFS Main slate cash play if they come anywhere close to what they did last week.
Jets - $2100
It feels dirty writing this, but this is only if Tua plays. Right now it's 50/50 at best but he has not looked good recently so I don't hate punting away this position to spend money elsewhere.
I love a good weekly fling but it's gotten serious this year. The best thing about DFS is each week you have a chance to be number one and you're never out of it - no matter what has gone wrong for you this season. While injured reserve and covid designations plague your league, they make DFS all that much more appealing.
So while the injury and covid news continues to fly in and crush your season long lineups, let's open up that Draft Kings app, and build those DFS lineups around it.
Let's all eat this week in Cash.
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