"You know what makes you feel okay about losing? Winning. - Molly Bloom from Molly's Game.
The DFS game will often leave you feeling the same way. You know what makes you feel better after a losing Week 12? Grinding all week so that the Week 13 Sunday Main Slate has you smiling while your Draft Kings account fills back up.
Winning in Week 13. What will it take? Who will take us there?
At first glance, most DFS players said, "gross.' when they looked at the Main Slate this week but when no match-ups really stand out, that is where you can find your edge over the competition by taking a deep dive in.
Quarterbacks:
Rodgers - $6800
we talked about it on the podcast this week.. he's been incredibly consistent and actually has been the number one QB in scoring over the last 5 games. His floor since week 7 has been 29 points in PPR formats. He's only $6800 and Philly turns the ball over with Wentz, so Mr.consistent with likely even more opportunities on offense? Yes Please.
Cousins - $6400
I'm keeping it simple in cash games this week with two quarterbacks as I feel the RB/WR situation requires the most attention. Cousins last 5 games have been 34, 31, 24, 29, and 14 against GB when Cook went off for 48. That's about 25 points per game. Good enough for 6th among all 32 QB's and he has a 30 point team total this week. The only way he doesn't get there is if Cook has another massive game and I'll have plenty of exposure to Cook so I'm okay with that.
In fact, in tournaments I'm all over Cousins to Thielen/Jefferson and bringing it back with Robinson and or a WR to get leverage off of the Chalk, Cook.
Other Quarterbacks: Justin Herbert, Taysom Hill, Ryan Tannehill.
RunningBacks:
Dalvin Cook - $9500
Here we go again... I was fuming last Sunday about the 11 points I got from Dalvin Cook in a smash spot, but my exposure will be far less this week than the 90% that it was last week. Cue up the Stud coming off of a Dud narrative. Again, he's in a smash spot and there was initial fear for me of them managing his workload with Kubiak saying, "He's beat up." However, with Mattison being ruled out due to illness, "No doubt about it.. I'm ready to get hurt again." - Michael Scott
Despite his week 12 performance, in the past 5 weeks, Cook is the number one back with 138 PPR points. Henry is the next closest with 44 less points.
the Vikings have a 30 point team total so if Cook doesn't get there, there is no way that Cousins/Thielen and/or Jefferson don't eat and I will be targeting them in tournament stacks. I'll take a loss in my cook lineups if I take down a tournament with the other Vikings in that highly concentrated offense.
Derrick Henry - $9200
I'd have a ton of exposure to Henry if his price didn't jack up so high. For a guy who doesn't catch passes in the PPR format of Draft Kings, $9200 is a lot to ask unless he gets into the end zone 2+ times and the Browns Defense is not a cake walk. I'll probably have Henry in about 25% of my cash lineups so I can't fault anyone for playing the man - even at $9200 - who normally comes on at this point in the season.
For tournaments in that same game, I like the Idea of playing Tannehill at $6200 with a 4% ownership and a 29 point team total. Stack him with AJ Brown and a cheap option like Humphries or Firkser and bring it back with Chubb or Hunt. That's how you get different without being too wild..
Austin Ekeler - $7100
The decision to play Ekeler is simple for me.. I want some exposure to Davante Adams, and at $9000, I can't play him and a RB priced over 9K. Ekeler was not eased in last week as he saw 14 carries and 16 targets. His 24 point performance was nice but not near his ceiling with that kind of usage. He'll definitely be my pivot off of Cook/Henry.
David Montgomery - $5500
Almost a Dive play at only $5500. The Lions are not good against the run, ranking 32nd, and Montgomery gets almost all of the carries. He's also coming off of a big game, we know Trubisky isn't good so they should want to continue to run, and he's priced low. He'll be the chalk this week so you can safely play him at $5500.
Other Runningbacks: James Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, Devontae Booker, Wayne Gallman, Chris Carson.
Wide Receivers:
Davante Adams - $9000
He has torched Darius Slay before and as we saw with DK last week, Slay is good but he's a far cry from a Ramsey type of shutdown corner. He has Rodgers and they have one of the highest team totals on the slate.
Allen Robinson - $6700
Trubisky isn't a good quarterback but Robinson seems to eat more when he is on the field than with Foles. I think it says more about Robinson than anything else. The Lions are not good against opposing WR's so this is a good matchup for Robinson.
Cooper Kupp - $6100
Woods is likely to draw Peterson so Kupp is the better play as he's still getting 25% of the target shares and the Cardinals are easier to pass on than run on.
Brandon Cooks - $5600
Pill Fuller is out for the year due to PED's and Cobb is on IR. Cooks has been great as the number two but now he draws number one DB coverage and the Colts have solid corners. Regardless, he has a projected ownership of 31% so you can eat this chalk at his price.
$$$ Dive plays $$$
Keke Coutee - $3500
Fuller, Cobb, Stills all are out. Who will Watson throw to? He'll need someone besides Cooks and Keke is almost minimally priced.
Adam Humphries- $3200
Do not play Humphries in cash, but in a tournament as a stacking piece with Tannehill? Sure. He's $3200 and has had an 18 point game just this season. They have a 29 point team total, so if you are trying to get different and need a cheap stacking piece with Tannehill, Humphries isn't a crazy option.
Other Wide Receivers: Keenan Allen, DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, Parker (with Fitz).
Thielen/Jefferson note - both are great plays but not with Cook in a cash Lineup. This is a tournament type of play unless you're fading Cook in Cash.
Tight Ends:
I'm paying down at Tight End this week because there are plentiful Dive Plays under 5K
Robert Tonyan - $3700
He's been the 5th overall tight end over the past 5 weeks. I'm definitely going here if I don't completely punt the position and roll with Akins or Firkser.
Austin Hooper - $3800
He's in a good matchup against Tennessee. If you want a TE punt with a guy who saw the end zone just last week, this is it.
Jordan Akins - $2900
Again, Watson needs to throw to someone. Akins will probably the the chalk TE play this week so definitely play him at $2900 if he's chalk.
Anthony Firkser - $2500
Minimum salary and a high team total, he's in a smash spot for his salary with Jonnu out.
Other Tight Ends: Waller.
As we get into the final weeks of the DFS NFL Season, what better way to end 2020 by winning and leaving the competition in our rear view mirrors as we look forward to 2021? I'll leave you with this my DFS Family:
“Nothing was "recreational" in our family; everything was a lesson in pushing past the limits and being the best we could possibly be.” - Molly Bloom
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