As the Fantasy Football Playoffs officially begin, some might feel a sigh of relief that the season long grind - with unprecedented challenges - is finally coming to an end.
Others who embrace the challenges of uncertainty and use it as a way to find an edge, might have found this season as somewhat thrilling to maneuver through all the obstacles along the runway to the finish.
Fortunately for those of us who play DFS, we sift through the news during the week, searching for ways in which it will present us value to win the race because we play the game on a budget.
Like race teams carefully picking parts that will build the fastest car under 50K to make it down the track first on race day. Will that discounted Turbo on a 6 cylinder get you there or is money better spent on a naturally aspirated V8?
DFS is our race track and profiting on Sundays is our way of getting into Victory Lane. Fortunately for us this week, we ended up with a lot of late value at Running Back and Wide Receiver to give you several different combinations for your Pony to have enough Horsepower to cash this week.
Quarterbacks:
Mahomes - $8100
He's pricey but He's Patrick Mahomes. His floor is 20 points and his ceiling is about 40 points. His worst game of the season was 12 points because Drew Lock threw 4 interceptions and Mahomes had to do next to nothing to win, but other than that, he's a lock for over 20 points. You can play him as a stand alone in Cash but obviously in tournaments he can and should be stacked with Kelce, Hill, or any combination of 2 pass catchers in the Chiefs passing game.
Rodgers - $7500
The reason that I probably won't play Mahomes is I can have the same floor and upside more or less at $600 cheaper with Rodgers. Rodgers gets into the redzone and he targets Adams. It's obvious that he's chasing records this year as we watched him throw the ball 3 straight times to Adams last week from the goal line. If it's not Adams, Tonyan is next in line. Both should definitely be considered as tournament stacks. This game carries a 31 point team total and a 55 point game total - there's no way I'm' not having a lot of exposure to Rodgers AND Adams this week.
Some people might question why I don't offer cheap options as QB Cash plays and the reason being is that I don't want such a high range out outcomes from my QB position to save just 1-2K. Sure Rodgers can have an 8 point game, but there's a reason why Rodgers has 100 more Fantasy Football Points than say... Derek Carr at this point in the season. Yes a QB like Carr will go for 32 points one game like last week vs the Jets, but he also had -1 point the week before in a great matchup against Atlanta, and 7 points two weeks before that vs Denver. Rodgers does not have this kind of variance from week to week- that kind of variance is what you want to avoid in cash games.
Other QB'S: Cousins, Herbert, Hill, Brady. (3 max entries)
Running Backs:
Henry - $8700
A 53 point game total, and the Titans are favored by 7.5 points. Jaguars are 29th giving up fantasy points to RB's and Henry is a stud coming off of a dud. I don't see any scenario where Henry doesn't have a 20+ game unless he's injured. He'll need 26 to hit value, but with injury/covid giving way to 4-5k backs, I think Henry is an elite play this week.
Jones - $7600
Jones smashed last week but had a 70 yard touchdown run to do it and you can't bank on that every week. The last time he played the Lions, he hit 48 points on Draft Kings, but can lightning strike twice? Jones and Adams are generally negatively correlated, and in fact, Adams left the game early during the last meeting with the Lions and that's when Jones smashed. When Rodgers is throwing to Adams at the goal line and Jones is splitting carries with Williams, it's just a risky proposition to play him in Cash at 7600. I love Jones in tournaments but I'm not going to have a lot of exposure to him in cash as I'll be heavy on Davante Adams this week.
Ekeler - $7000
Ekeler failed me last week in Cash but it's hard for a RB to produce in a blowout loss - even a receiving back like Ekeler. The Falcons are without Julio Jones this week and Matt Ryan has been awful without Julio, so any blowout from Atlanta seems highly unlikely. The targets and rushing attempts should be there for Ekeler this week.
***DIVE PLAYS *** 5K AND UNDER***
JD Mckissic - $4900
Gibson is out and Mckissic's 10 targets last week went for 10 receptions and 70 yards. He's a pass catching RB and should continue to see a high target share with Gibson out and Alex Smith as the Checkdown QB that we all remember from his days in Kansas City.
Deandre Washington - $4000
Breida and Gaskin are out with Covid. Ahmed is hurt, and there is really nobody else to compete with Deandre Washington for carries as he should get the start and see the majority of the work. At 4K and the starter, we can project him to be chalk and thus a free square.
Other RB'S: Carson, Swift, Robinson, Montgomery.
Wide Receivers:
Davante Adams - $9300
Highest game total? Check
Highest team total? Check
Hall of Fame QB? Check
Top 3 WR in NFL? Check
WR vs CB mismatch? Check
I'm playing Adams in Cash and in Tournaments.
Tyreek Hill - $8500
He's averaged 23 points a season and even in a down week like last week, he still had 15 points and it should've been much more as he actually caught a deep touchdown that he didn't think he had caught - as strange enough as that sounds. The guy is matchup proof with his speed and he has the best QB in the game. He can break a slate so you want him in your lineup.
Keenan Allen - $7700
Since the beginning of the season, we've been saying to target Falcons Corners with WR's and Keenan Allen strolls into this game averaging 11 targets per game on the season. The Chargers offense should be pissed and ready for a bounce back game and ready to feast on the porous Julioless Falcons.
Thielen - $7000
The Bucs are easier to pass on as they have a very solid Run D. As we've talked about before, the Vikings have a very centralized offense that runs through Cook/Thielen/Jefferson. If Cook struggles against that front, the points will have to come Through Thielen & Jefferson. Both are playable and definitely will have Thielen and Jefferson with bring back options in tournament stacks with Brady.
Robby Anderson $6200
With DJ Moore out, CMC likely out, and the Broncos down two starting corners with Callahan hurt and AJ Bouye suspended, Anderson/Samuel are the top 2 Fantasy Points per Dollar play this week just in front of Davante Adams. Robby Anderson is first with 2.95 FPTS per $ and Curtis Samuel is 2.84
Curtis Samuel $5200
With DJ Moore out, CMC likely out, and the Broncos down two starting corners with Callahan hurt and AJ Bouye suspended, Anderson/Samuel are the top 2 Fantasy Points per Dollar play this week just in front of Davante Adams. Robby Anderson is first with 2.95 FPTS per $ and Curtis Samuel is 2.84
***DIVE PLAYS *** 5K AND UNDER***
Tim Patrick - $4200
How many targets does this man need to see before we start taking him seriously? He's $4200 and in his last 4 games with Lock - minus the Hinton debacle - he has averaged 17.55 points per game. That is 4X!
Breshad Perriman - $3900
Denzel Mims is out and Jamison Crowder is questionable. Going against the Seattle Defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, Perriman could be the main target and a great pay down option for players looking to pay up for guys like Adams/Henry/Tyreek, etc. He had a dud last week but the 3 games before he averaged 17 points per game.
Other WR"S: Metcalf, Lockett, Brown, Robinson, Aiyuk.
Tight Ends:
Kelce - $7400
Generally don't pay up for tight ends but I think there's enough wide receiver and running back pay down options this week that you could avoid paying up at one of those positions and pay up for Kelce. He's far and away the best tight end of the 2020 NFL Season.
***DIVE PLAYS *** 5K AND UNDER***
Gesicki - $4500
He saw 11 targets for 88 yards and a tuddy last week vs the Bengals and he gets another team this week that is poor covering tight ends with KC - they rank 25th. With few options in the passing game, Gesicki could be another strong play in a good matchup vs KC.
Noah Fant - $4100
There's some buzz building around this game that it could be sloppy on defense and thus a shootout. Fant has a 25% target share and the talent and matchup are there.
Jordan Akins - $2900
When you have elite corners like the Bears do, that opens up passes to the tight ends. Given that Watson hardly has anyone to throw to now with suspensions and injuries, I'm not afraid to go back to Akins at $2900.
Cole KMeT - $2900
His snaps have been on the rise and he had 5 receptions and a tuddy last week. It's a decent matchup and with the Bears phasing Jimmy Graham out, he's a solid Tight end punt if you're looking to spend the minimum.
Other Tight Ends: Waller, Hockenson, Gronk, Engram, Thomas.
Defenses:
WFT - $2800
I don't believe in paying over 3K for a defense because the position has too much variance. The patriots were far and away the best Defense last week at $2600, producing 31 points. Washington has been a solid defense and produced 4 games over 13 points - against Mullens they could have another big day.
Cowboys - $2400
Bengals - $2300
Both of these teams have been crushed by Dalton at one point or another. I prefer the Cowboys as a pay down option because Dalton is better than Allen but both are bad teams this year and have turned the ball over. The price and matchup is right for both teams and this could go either way. If you're buying the revenge game narrative, then you go with Dalton and the Cowboys.
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