Each and every week, we'll look at various contests to spot trends in the 2021 season. Cash games, smaller single entry and 3 max tournaments, some larger GPP's, and of course the Milli Maker that we cover every week on 'Makin a Milli' 'Podcast.
Stacking
Stacking is always an important part of bringing down any tournament. What differs is the degree to which you stack, what games you stack, and how creative you get in those stacks with regards to total points and total roster %.
As we saw in the Milli Maker, fading the chalky team/game stacks of Dallas and Los Angeles was the right move in Week 2 and it appeared to be the case in the $50k Nickel (3 entry max) as well.
While avoiding the attractive 55 point game total of Dal/Lac, BillyDoyles focused on 3 stacks in 3 different games to score 208.70 points for a first place finish in the 50K Nickel. The next 3 games were the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th highest projected scoring totals and were as follows:
Ten/Sea 54.5
Atl/Tb 52
Min/Az 50.5
The first game stack he used was Murray/Moore/Edmonds and brought it back with Osborn on the Minnesota side. (QB/RB/WR & Opposing WR) This stack of 4 players combined for 98.10 points, almost 25 points each.
The next stack he used was Henry and Everett (RB/TE) in the Tennessee/Seattle game. Everett only scored 1.30 points but with Henry scoring 50.70, it didn't matter what Everett did.
The last stack he used was Nick Chubb/Cooks in the Houston and Cleveland game. (RB/WR) This totaled 39.60 points.
Roster %
His entire roster percentage was very low at only 59%. Even less than the Milli Maker and this contest only had 11,000 entries as opposed to 265,944 of the milli maker. The contrarian plays hit big as the chalkier plays on the slate didn't live up to the hype.
Pricing
QB: $8200 Kyler Murray. Murray's upside is arguably the highest in the league so paying up for him is a risk but the reward is even higher.
RB: $8300 Henry, $7800 Chubb, and $4900 Edmonds. It's pretty clear here that Billy chose to pay up for less rostered Henry and Chubb and also found decent value with Edmonds in the big AZ/Min game stack that he used. Average RB price was $7,000.
WR: $4000 Moore, $3300 Osborn, $5900 Cooks. After paying $21,00 at RB, $8200 at QB, Billy didn't have a ton of money left (About $4160 per position) and you could definitely see that in his WR group. $4400 was the average price of his WR group where he was forced to pay down for the Murray/Chubb/Henry build that he wanted.
TE: $3600 Everett. A complete punt with $3600 Everett. The salary savings here were likely used to pay up for his last position.
DST: $3700 DST. Last, BillyDoyles paid up for the Patriots D at $3700 and it paid off with 19 points. Belichick's defense vs a rookie QB who was struggling in week 1 is the perfect combination you look for when paying up for a Defense and it certainly paid off here. Each of the top 5 teams had a defense with at least 19 points so this was the right move.
Ceiling:
I'm not going to spend a lot of time here evaluating the floor/ceiling of each player because it's apparent when looking at this roster that if we ran this out a million times, it's going to have high variance. You're probably thinking, "well duh, most tournament winning lineups do." I agree, but in this case, having Henry/Murray both hit their ceiling in the same lineup with 3 highly volatile players that hit their ceiling as well is going to be even rarer than usual.
Players like Henry, Chubb, Murray, and Cooks will consistently put up good to great numbers. However guys like Osborn, Everett, Edmonds, Pats DST, and probably Moore are likely to be all over the place. I think 208 is about the ceiling for this lineup but you're likely to see scores of 100 or less if you ran it out a million times. It will be all over the place, but by targeting the right game stacks, it was the nuts this week in this contest.
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