As we hit the 1 month mark to the start of the 2021 NFL Season, we now have a decent sample size on some of the trends that we're seeing in the 2021 Milli Maker winning lineups. We'll recap week 4 and then take it a step further by looking at seasonal trends.
Stacking
Dak/Schultz + DJ Moore
QB + TE + Opposing WR.
On the surface, there’s not much to dissect here in regards to stacking with only one game stack consisting of 3 players. However, the beauty in this lineup is how JZinser was able to stack the 2nd highest scoring game on the slate and get leverage on the field by getting off a chalkier Cooper/Moore stack and mixing in Schultz. This was the right stack of the game from a Fantasy points per dollar + roster % perspective and allowed JZinser to spend more money elsewhere. This 3 player stack produced 79.9 points.
Roster %
Dak - 6.81%
Barkley - 2.45%
Patterson - 6.72%
Deebo - 10.04%
DJ Moore - 17.63%
Corey Davis - 9.92%
Schultz - 9.6%
Monty - 20.18%
Bills DST - 5.25%
Total: 88.6%
The 3 prior weeks saw total Roster % at 78, 77, and 87% so this continues the trend of total roster % being under 90% in the Milli Maker for the start of the 2021 season. Right now the average is 82%. Read further to see 2021 averages for the first month of the season compared to 2020.
Pricing
Dak - $6700 - 4.03X
Barkley - $6700 - 4.41X
DJ Moore - $6600 - 5.28X
Deebo - $6500 - 5.95X
Monty - $5800 - 4,41X
Corey Davis $5000 - 4.82%X
Patterson - $4900 - 7.06X
Bills - $4300 - 5.34X
Schultz - $3400 - 5.23X
Once again, we see a lineup full of players in the 6K or below range that crushed their value. This entire lineup averaged 5.17X. With the high being Patterson at 7.06X - A Milli Maker record in the 2021 season. Early in the 2021 season we’re certainly seeing some trends that spending up for studs is a detriment to your chances of taking down a massive GPP like the Milli Maker. With 4 weeks of data, we have a decent sample size to start looking at positional pricing between all 4 weeks and will cover that later.
Ceiling
At first look... you look at this lineup and say, really? One small game stack took this thing down? Not only did this roster take down the Milli Maker, but it was the highest scoring lineup on the season. If you paid close attention to the main slate last week, you’ll see that JZinser targeted several pieces of the highest projected games both in and out of the stacks. He/She targeted some of the highest ceiling players & Fantasy points per dollar projections. Let’s take a look:
Deebo Samuel at 38.70 points. DFS Army’s optimal ceiling projections had Deebo Samuel ranked in the top 5 this week at 36 points, as this was a great matchup vs Seattle in a highly projected game. JZinser had the perfect one off here as opposed to stacking this game and Deebo smashed to the tune of 38.70 points. When the game went under but he only had one big piece as he did with Samuel, he got a lot of leverage on part of the field who stacked this game.
Montgomery at 25.60 points. Montgomery was everywhere in the optimals as one of the highest projected players from both a points and fantasy points per dollar basis. This was a one off in a great matchup and as we’ve covered before, Running back’s don’t need to be correlated in a lineup to get you there. He did enough to get JZinser there.
Barkley 29.60 points. Barkley has looked better and better and yet his price has barely increased. Anytime you have a stud with very low ownership like here with Barkley, you play the stud. The 250 point target to win a GPP like the Milli Maker is done with players who have the ceiling to keep your average over 27.7 points per player. Barkley did that with his near 30 point performance. Another one off that hit at the RB position.
Cordarelle Patterson 34.60 points. Cordarelle Patterson’s usage makes you scratch your head considering they drafted Pitts at 4th overall and proceeded to design their offense around Patterson. However, you cannot deny his production this season. At $4900, this is the exact type of value that takes down tournaments. Patterson didn’t even need 34.60 points to win a big GPP at his $4900 price tag, but his ceiling that keeps on growing certainly helped those who rostered him. You would have to go back to 2014 to find a game where he scored more than 20 points, but in 2021, his ceiling is 25-35 points.
Corey Davis at 24.10 points. Corey Davis was a sneaky play in a much better matchup than the Jets had faced in prior weeks. I had considered stacking him with Henry in tournaments but couldn’t pull the trigger on it. This was probably the riskiest one off JZinser had in his lineup from considering how poor Wilson looked in recent weeks, but recency bias was all the more reason to play Davis. Davis, the number one WR in New York, is an excellent WR who was due for some regression after a couple of down games.
Bills at 23 points. The Buffalo Bills Defense going up against Houston. We should’ve seen this one coming as we all built our Josh Allen led team stacks. 23 points from your Defense is why you pay up for Defenses in GPP’s like the Milli Maker. That 27.7 point average isn’t going to be reached with a zero at Defense.
The ceiling of Dak and DJ Moore is high. Dak is capable of 40+ point games on DK and DJ Moore is definitely the Alpha in that Panthers’ offense. Almost 35 points is outstanding and the kind of ceiling when paired with Dak, can bring a lower ceiling player like Schultz along with them for the 27.7 point average needed to stay on the 250 point fast track.
When considering all the right one offs mixed with the perfect game stack in Dal/Car, it’s no wonder this lineup smashed. This goes back to my 2020 milli maker review when I found that you can’t always force stacks when they’re just not there that week. This lineup construction was the definition of zigging when others zag.
2021 Seasonal Trends
Trends that we’ve seen from the first month of the 2021 Milli Maker WInners:
Stacking
Thus far, every Milli Maker Winner has had at least 1 stack; 3 out of 4 have had at least 2 stacks, 1 out of 4 have had 3 stacks, and 1 out of 4 had only 1 stack.
Week 1: 2 team stacks.
Stack of 4: 0
Stack of 3: 1
Stack of 2: 1
Week 2: 2 team stacks and 1 game stack for a total of 3 stacks.
Stack of 4: 0
Stack of 3: 1
Stack of 2: 2
Week 3: 2 game stacks.
Stack of 4: 1
Stack of 3: 1
Stack of 2: 0
Week 4: 1 game stack
Stack of 4: 0
Stack of 3: 1
Stack of 2: 0
Roster %:
Week 1: 78%
Week 2: 77%
Week 3: 87%
Week 4: 88%
Average: 82.5%
The overall roster percentage over 16 weeks last year was 108%. Right now it's even lower at 82.5% through 1 month of the season. Chances are this will climb, but how high? Right now I'm not building a lineup over 100% given the current numbers we've seen in the first month of the season.
RB/WR/TE in the Flex
It’s early in the season but thus far, a WR in the flex is a carryover from the 2020 season when we saw 56% of the lineups with a WR in the flex. Right now we’re seeing 75% of WR in the flex. 25% of RB in the flex. (No TE has appeared in the flex.)
Week 1:WR in the Flex
Week 2:WR in the Flex
Week 3: WR in the Flex
Week 4: RB in the Flex
Pricing by Position
QB:
Week 1: $5700
Week 2: $6900
Week 3: $7000
Week 4: $6700
Average: $6575
This is consistent with what we saw from weeks 9-16 of the 2020 season when it was $6412. Weeks 1-9 of the 2020 season, the average pricing was $7250.
RB:
Week 1: $5750 (2 RB’s)
Week 2: $6700 (2 RB’s)
Week 3: $5900 (2 RB’s)
Week 4: $5800 (3 RB’s)
Average: $6037
This shows a significant drop in pricing from the entire 2020 season when the average price was $6946. Henry has been the only elite RB (priced over 8k) to appear in the winning lineup, and we've seen most of the winning lineups focused on backs in the 6K and below range.
WR:
Week 1:$5600 (4 WR’s)
Week 2: $5475 (4 WR’s)
Week 3: $5875 (4 WR’s)
Week 4: $6033 (3 WR’s)
Average: $5745
The average price spent at the WR position weeks 1-16 of the 2020 season was $5939. Simply put, we have enough data to conclude that if your average price of WR's doesn't fall between $5700-$6000, you might think about reconstructing your lineup.
TE:
Week 1: $8300
Week 2: $4700
Week 3: $4700
Week 4: $3400
Average: $5275
What we're seeing so far with the Average price of TE' is inline with what we saw for the first 8 weeks of the 2020 season when it was $5100. After the first 8 weeks of the 2020 season, it dropped to $3900. Will history repeat itself? Probably. Tight end is a very volatile position so it makes sense to punt as much as often as the week 4 winner did with Schultz.
DST
Week 1: $2100
Week 2: $2900
Week 3: $3000
Week 4: $4300
Average: $3075
Once again we're seeing the average price of DST's stay in the $3000 range for the winning lineups.
Note, Cardinals D were in 3 of the first 4 Winning lineups. I'm probably riding this hot hand as long as the matchup is good and the pricing is right.
Catch us on Makin A Milli as we recap week 4, seasonal trends, and we preview week 5 of the Milli Maker. This week we're introducing a new Segment to the show! Subscribe so you never miss an episode.
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