This one was bittersweet. This is my second finish in the 99th percentile of the Milli Maker and really I should be happy about breaking even thus far in 8 weeks of this contest. However, once you get within 30-40 points of winning this contest, you really start dissecting your process that led you to 1-2 different players and thus down the leaderboard from some serious money.
In reality, my lineup was dead the second James Robinson left the game with injury and was very fortunate to earn 5X my money, but there were lessons to be learned by analyzing the winning lineup and I’ll talk about those.
Week 8 was the second week this season that we’ve seen the chalk hit across all contests and make for chalkier GPP winning lineups.
One thing I noticed as a parallel from the Chalky Week 5 winning Milli Maker lineup, is both chalkier lineups (Week 5 & 8) had 1 game stack of three players.
In Week 5 we had Brady + Evans + Brown. Would Week 8 be the same? Let’s see:
Stacking
QB + WR + Bring back WR
Wentz - 20.34
Pittman JR. - 30.60
AJ Brown - 34.50
Total - 85.44
AVG - 28.48
FPTS$ - 4.77x
(Fantasy Points Per Dollar)
Roster %
Wentz - 7.99%
Elijah Mitchell - 11.04%
Michael Carter - 5.98%
Cooper Kupp - 14.64%
AJ Brown - 14.46%
Michael Pittman - 26.46%
P. Freiermuth 4.52%
Chris Godwin - 24.6%
Seahawks DST - 5.1%
Total - 114.79%
Week 8 was back to a chalk smash. When I saw the 50K pylon contest (20,000 entries) winner with a winning lineup total roster % of 141%, I knew we were in for a chalkier winning lineup in the milli maker. I had cash lineups scoring 170+ and I play the chalk in cash, so seeing another winning lineup break over 100% was bound to happen this week. This marks the 2nd time this season that we’ve seen winning lineups hit almost 115% in the milli maker, and 6/8 weeks we have it at 95% or less. When there are obvious attractive game environments on the slate and they live up to the hype, this is usually the result.
Pricing
$9000 Kupp - 3.05X
$6900 Brown - 5X
$6400 Godwin - 4.84X
$5700 Wentz - 3.56X
$5400 Mitchell - 4.20X
$5300 Pittman - 5.77X
$4900 Carter - 6.57X
$3600 Freiermuth - 4X
$2800 Seahawks - 4.64X
$50,000 Total - 4.64X
This week we saw more pay ups at the WR position starting with Kupp’s $9,000 price tag. This average WR pricing was almost $1,000 higher than what we’ve seen on the season at $5700. Paying down for Wentz at $5700 + Carter/Mitchell ($5150 average) allowed for the pay up core WR’S of Kupp/Godwin/Brown.
We did see a price drop in DST by just a bit at $2800 with the Seahawks in a great matchup vs the Jaguars. With Geno starting for Seattle, I felt this could go either way but certainly the Seahawks are a great play hitting 4.64X on their salary.
Once again, the Milli Maker featured one player producing 6X on their salary with Michael Carter stealing the show here at 6.57X!
Leverage
Michael Carter was 5.98% rostered and out scored 18.87% Mixon, 22.60% Henderson, 11.32% Taylor, 12.27% Cordarelle Patterson, and 23.70% D’andre Swift, as well as others. Simply put, Carter was one of the cheapest RB’s on the slate, had under 6% ownership, and was the top scoring RB. He was the ultimate leverage play at the RB position this week and thus Pirez shot up the leaderboards with Carter in his lineup.
Elijah Mitchell was another strong leverage play in regards to Fantasy points per dollar and total roster % . Granted he was 11.07% rostered but when compared to Joe Mixon ($6900) at 18.87%, Henderson ($6,500) at 22.60%, and 11.32% Taylor at $7200, these were the chalkier plays and Mitchell outproduced all of them from a Fantasy points per dollar basis while also being less roster % than Henderson Taylor, and Mixon.
You can play the chalk as long as you get different and hit elsewhere, and Pirez did that at the RB position.
Granted I can’t account for injury, but had I got seriously different at the RB position, my total Roster % wouldn’t have hit 130% and I might be talking about a much bigger day than the $600 total I made on DK. You pay down at RB with Carter and/or Mitchell, and you can afford to pay up at Defense like Denver or Philly and possibly hit the nuts last week.
Not many people were on Carter last week but he was popping up in optimals over at DFS Army. Their Domination Station was ranked number one through 7 weeks of the NFL Season by DailyOverlay. ( DFS Army - Use code FantasyFling for 10% off a VIP Subscription.)
Ceiling
This was one of the lower scoring weeks in the Milli Maker but many of the Players featured in the winning lineup didn’t even hit their ceiling, so it’s safe to say that this lineup could win it all even in an average week for the Milli Maker. Generally you want 27.7 points per player to hit the 250 point target to win the milli maker, but this week 226.24 points was enough to win. About 25 points from each player was enough to win the Milli’s.
Wentz
Wentz is very jekyll and hyde but 20.34 points is nowhere near his ceiling. Reich does a great job scheming players open but overall Wentz did not have a great game. He threw high a lot on intermediate routes, threw into triple coverage, threw left handed for a pick six, and had some underthrows on deep balls. What was great about him in this lineup, though, is his price tag allowed players like Kupp/Godwin/Brown in the same lineup.
Elijah Mitchell - What is his ceiling? He’s a rookie but RB’s in the Shanhan offense have a very high ceiling. 30-40 points is very attainable. 22.70 point was good enough for 4X this week and plenty enough to maintain the 25 point average needed in this lineup construction.
Michael Carter - We also don't know what his ceiling is yet but 32.20 points to the tune of 6.57X is enough to get there. You need a 6X+ player every week to win the Milli Maker and he got there.
Cooper Kupp - We’ve evaluated his ceiling many times already this season and it’s 40+
Any GPP lineup with Kupp in it has enough ammunition to to get it done for lesser players in the squad. Meaning others can get there to their average needed to win just by Kupp being that much extra. (If a Player’s ceiling is 20 but Kupp produces 35-40, all is well in terms of average points per player.)
Arthur Juan Brown - I just learned that is his full name this week. It’s a mouthful and Arthur Juan Brown is a handful for opposing defenses. His big play ability makes him a threat to go for 35+ any week, against any team.
Michael Pittman is a budding star. His ceiling is certainly high enough at 30+ but I’m starting to wonder what his ceiling would truly be with a legit Quarterback.
Pat Freiermuth - The sample size is small and Big Ben isn’t what he used to be so it’s tough to say what Pat’s ceiling will eventually be but with the Tight End position being so volatile and his price being low at under 4K, 4X his salary is plenty.
Chris Godwin - Godwin continues to shine in Antonio Brown’s absence. His ceiling is 35-40 points on any week.
Seahawks DST- In Large Field GPP’s like the Milli Maker, Generally you pay up a bit for Defenses in good matchups, and the Seahawks were a cheaper ‘pay up’ option at $2800. They hit 4X which is all you need them to do in regards to a tournament ceiling for DST.
In 2 out of 8 weeks this season of the DFS Main Slate, we saw the Chalk smash, and both times the Milli Maker winning lineup featured skinnier game stacks of only 3 players. Will this continue? It's hard to say but if we're projecting a week where we're seeing few paths to the chalk not smashing, I know how I'm constructing my lineups..
This week we’re going live on Wednesday for ‘Makin A Milli’ as we preview the Week 9 Milli Maker. Subscribe here so you don’t miss it!
Comments