Each week this season we'll be looking at various GPP contests to spot trends that we can learn from to see what Sharp Players are doing to Bink these contests and win all the cash. This week featured some smaller stacks compared to past weeks of the Play Action and MIlli Maker and some studs/sleepers as one offs in great matchups. Let's take a look.
Stacking
Sam Darnold/Hubbard/Moore
(QB + RB + WR Team stack)
Darnold - 36.54
Hubbard - 9.10
DJ Moore - 34.90
This 3 player team stack combined for 80.54 points. The only surprise here was that Hubbard was stacked with the QB & WR in the same offense and didn’t crash the lineup with only 9 points. At only $5900, pnageotte88 could afford for Hubbard not to smash based on pricing. This was the 2nd highest scoring game on the slate and Darnold and Moore were the best pieces to have, combining for about 35 points each, bringing Hubbard with them to keep the 3 player average just below the 83.1 needed for 250+ points to take down a massive GPP like the play action.
Knox/Buffalo (TE + Defense)
Knox 20.70
Bills DST 23
What do you do when there’s a mismatch between two teams like there was between Buffalo and Houston? You play the favored team’s Defense and find value + leverage in a player like Dawson Knox and hope they both smash. This stack did just that for 44.6 points - which was good for 5.64X.
Roster %
Darnold - 6.96%
Hubbard - 11.31%
Montgomery - 19.07%
Hill - 6.64%
Deebo - 9.35%
DJ Moore - 17.37%
Knox - 10.5%
Cobb - 0.87%
Bills - 5.49%
Total - 87%
Like we’ve seen in the Milli Maker this year, with winning lineups having an average roster % total of 82.5%, the low totals remain the same with the Play action contest. This contest is even larger than the Milli Maker with 634,165 entrants so it’s not surprising that roster % totals mirror the milli maker. This, however, is quite a bit lower than last week’s 114%.
Pricing
Hill - $8000 - 6.3X
DJ Moore - $6600 - 5.2X
Deebo Samuel - $6500 - 5.9X
Sam Darnold - $6000 - 6X
Hubbard - $5900 - 1.54X
Montgomery - $5800 - 4.41X
Bills DST - $4300 - 5.3X
Dawson Knox - $3600 - 5.7X
Randall Cobb - $3300 - 7.24X
I was pretty surprised that Tyreek Hill wasn’t the top dog from a Fantasy Points Per Dollar basis considering that he scored over 50 points, but with Cobb’s near stone minimum pricing, he took that crown with 7.24X. Even with Chubbard’s low 1.54X, this entire lineup still crushed it with 5.28X, for over 263 points. By paying down at RB, tight end, and the flex spot, this lineup was able to pay up for Hill at 8K, and afford the Darnold/DJ stack + the one off of Deebo. Those 4 players absolutely crushed it and scored almost 160.74 points. Similar to the Milli Maker winner, we saw no elite priced Running Backs in the winning lineup.
Ceiling
Several of the same players we discussed in the MIlli Maker are - not shockingly - featured here as well.
To take down a huge GPP like the Play Action, you need a high ceiling with your entire roster. 250+ points is your total and a 27.7 point average is needed across 9 roster spots.
Darnold
We’re finding out Darnold’s ceiling is a lot higher in Carolina than it was in New York. In New York, under 30 points was his ceiling on any given week, but thus far in Carolina he already has a game with almost 37 points.
DJ Moore
With Darnold coming to town, DJ Moore’s ceiling has raised a bit too as he was a 25-30 point ceiling player but we’re seeing him as the alpha in the offense and now capable of 35 point games.
Hubbard
We can probably assume that Hubbard is simply a backup talent and doesn’t have a high ceiling but the beauty of stacks are you can pay down for a back like Hubbard at $5900 and are okay with him not doing much because Darnold/Moore carried him to a 26.6 point average between the 3 players.
Tyreek the Freak
Need I say more? He’s capable of 50+ point performances as he produced here. He can go off at anytime and with ownership under 10% is exactly when you play him and watch your lineup rise up the leaderboards.
Deebo Samuel
38.70 points. DFS Army’s optimal ceiling projections had Deebo Samuel ranked in the top 5 this week at 36 points, as this was a great matchup vs Seattle in a highly projected game. The play action winner had the perfect one off here as opposed to stacking this game and Deebo smashed to the tune of 38.70 points. When the game went under but he only had one big piece as he did with Samuel, he got a lot of leverage on part of the field who stacked this game.
Montgomery
25.60 points. Montgomery was everywhere in the optimals as one of the highest projected players from both a points and fantasy points per dollar basis. This was a one off in a great matchup and as we’ve covered before, Running back’s don’t need to be correlated in a lineup to get you there. He did enough here!
Bills DST
23 points. The Buffalo Bills Defense going up against Houston. We should’ve seen this one coming as we all built our Josh Allen led team stacks. 23 points from your Defense is why you pay up for Defenses in GPP’s like the Play Action or Milli Maker. That 27.7 point average isn’t going to be reached with a zero at Defense.
Cobb
Cobb’s historical ceiling is 20-25 points, but at $3300, he doesn’t even need that many points as long as the rest of the roster smashes. 23.90 is still within his ceiling & a total smash for him at $3300. Great one off that Rodgers is a big fan of so you knew he’d get great production at some point.
Knox
Knox’s ceiling has always been low at about 10-15 points but sometimes you punt the position and hit the jackpot. 20.70 points is his highest score to date and it came at the perfect time for the pnageotte88’s play action victory of $100,000. In 3 years he’s never scored this high.. Yet he’s just another Bill to help win all the Bills in the play action contest of Week 4.
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