There's been one trend that continues to be on the move in the Milli Maker Winning lineups over the past month of the season. If you read this article every week, you might be able to spot it. Think you can? Let's take a look
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Stacking
Josh Allen - 24.94 PTS
Stefon Diggs - 33.20 PTS
(QB + WR)
Total 58.14 PTS
AVG - 29.07 PTS
(Team Stack)
Hunter Henry
R. Stevenson
D’ernest Johnson
(RB + TE + Opp. RB)
Total 72.80
AVG - 24.2 PTS
(Mini game stack)
Roster %
Allen 9.7%
D’ernest Johnson 48.43%
Mark Ingram - 26.18%
Keenan Allen - 8.51%
Stefon Diggs - 8.03%
Cedee Lamb - 10.38%
Henry - 4.05%
R. Stevenson - 3.28 %
Eagles - 3.31%
Total - 121.87%
Have you noticed a change recently? The first month of the season, the total roster % was at 82.5. However, if you look at the past 6 weeks, it's climbed to 106% during that span - the total in all of 2020 was 108% and the past 6 weeks reflect an almost identical average.
Leverage
Stevenson was leverage off of the field with 3.28% ownership. WHY was he rostered at such a low rate? People were getting carried away hyping up Bolden and Taylor that they forgot Stevenson was the starter with Harris out.
Stefon Diggs was the top dog at 8.03% ownership. He was under 10% and scored 33 points. We talk about it every week… when you have a stud at under 10% ownership, this is when you play them. Smash!
Had Lamb too at 10.38% ownership and was the 2nd leading WR on the slate with 28.60 points.
Hunter Henry was the top tight end on the slate with 19.70 points and was 4% rostered. Why so low with Jonnu Smith out?
Pricing
$7900 Allen - 3.56X
$7500 Diggs - 4.82X
$7000 Allen - 2.54X
$7000 Lamb - 4.08X
$4700 D. Johnson - 4.82X
$4500 Ingram - 4.62X
$4500 R. Stevenson - 6.75X
$4100 Henry - 4.80X
$2700 Eagles - 5.55X
Total - $49,900 - 4.61X
This was pay down at RB and pay up at QB + WR week. The paydown options allowed eppy99 to spend up for a good floor with players like Allen, and high floor/high ceiling players like Diggs/Lamb.
Regardless of whether the scoring is as high as it’s been in the past or not, we continue to see one player producing 6X on their salary in the winning Milli Maker Lineup every week this season. Stevenson was that man this week when he hit 6.75X his salary.
Ceiling
As I talked about last week with the 2021 Trends in the Milli Maker, the average score to bink this tournament is way down from 2020. With the total on the season being 232, and another low scoring week, we can still shoot for that 250 point but much less than that has gotten it done.
So far in 2021, 25.77 points per player is enough to take down the Milli Maker so we can’t continue to think in terms of the 27.7 per player average needed in the past.
Core:
J. Allen - 40 PTS +
Allen - 40 PTS+
Diggs - 40 PTS +
Lamb - 40 PTS
Value RB’s:
This list of RB’s may not have the same ceiling that the above players have but they don’t need to. They have a high enough floor thru volume that they can average enough points between the 3 to keep the points per player average high enough to bink a large field GPP like the Milli Maker as long as the studs smash.
D. Johnson - 22.70
Ingram - 20.80
R. Stevenson - 30.40
Total 73.9 points
AVG - 24.63
7 Player Average - 25.38
Tight end and DST are the 2 most volatile positions in Fantasy Football so anytime you can average 5X on the player salary, you’re in a great shape. An average of 17 points between these two positions is definitely enough to ‘get there’.
Henry - 19.70
Eagles DST - 15
AVG - 17.35
9 player Average - 23.59 or about 213 points.
As the winning Milli Maker scores continue to decline and surprise us from what we saw in 2020, they’re a direct reflection of the football we watch on sunday. While the ceiling seems more reachable compared to past years, it’s like we’re standing in that same house but the floor is sinking too.
We have to follow the trends and shift our strategy to attack the MIlli Maker and we’ll be back week 12 to recap the contest and give you our preview going forward!
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