We say it all the time… getting a lil silly for the Milli. Well this lineup was definitely silly. It makes me illi thinking about how much effort we put into studying trends to see a lineup like this bink the milli maker. It was an outlier among outliers but there are still things to be learned from this lineup so let’s take a look.
As far as stacking goes, this game leaves a lot to be desired. This ugly stack is nothing like the
Rodgers/Adams/MVS/Jefferson stack that took down other tournaments or even the
Cousins/Jefferson/Thielen stack that was good enough for 2nd place.
Had the 2nd place team chosen the Lions instead of the Vikings DST, he/she would have won the tournament and we’re talking about what a beautiful stack won the Milli Maker. Come to think of it, I’m not sure why you would build a Cousins double stack and include the Vikings DST because we know if Cousins/Thielen/Jefferson get there, then the Packers are scoring a lot of touchdowns too and that Vikings D is dead in the water. That’s exactly what happened but I digress.
Cam was used in a stack with… Tremble? Mclaurin was a great bring back option.
Stacking
Cam - 26.16
Tremble - 5.50
Mclaurin - 24.30
Total - 55.96
AVG - 18.65
(QB + TE + Opp WR)
Swift - 25.60
Detroit DST - 11
Total - 37.60
AVG - 18.3
(RB + Def)
Roster %
Cam - 9.33%
Taylor - 3.88%
Sanders .74%
Jefferson - 2.99%
Mclaurin - 1.19%
Moore - 4.63%
Tremble - .05%
Swift - 2.77%
Lions - 2.43%
Total - 28.01%
This had me kind of shook. This is by far the lowest we’ve seen in 2021 and 2020. The lowest we’ve seen in 2021 (until week 11) is 77% and the lowest in all of 2020 was 66%. I guess when it comes to large field GPP's, your overall roster % can never be too low.
Leverage
Jefferson - Jefferson was direct leverage off of Adams and Dillon in that GB/MIN shootout. Jefferson was the highest scoring WR on the slate and came in at under 3% ownership. Adams was 16% rostered, and Dillon was 39% rostered.
Swift - Came in at 2.77% ownership and finished as RB3 on the slate behind Taylor and Mixon. He was leverage off of chalkier plays like CMC, Chubb, and Conner who came in at over 15% ownership.
Mclaurin - At 1.19% ownership, Mclaurin finished just outside the top 5 in WR’s on the slate and outproduced chalkier plays such as Hill (24%) and Deebo (15%).
Taylor - If you watched last week, this one goes without saying. Taylor was the top play on the slate and was 3.88% owned. It’s almost unfathomable to think a $8300 player would almost produce 7X, but JT did it with 56 points, good enough for 6.79X on his salary.
Every week we've had one 6X player in the winning Milli Maker lineup. This week we had 2 with Taylor & Moore.
Pricing
$8300 Taylor - 6.79X
$8100 Jefferson - 4.96X
$7000 Mclaurin - 3.47X
$7000 Swift - 3.65X
$5100 Newton - 5.32X
$5000 Sanders - 1.68X
$4900 Moore - 6.65X
$2500 Tremble - 2.2
$2100 Lions DST - 5.23X
Total $50,000 - 4.43X
What we saw here is paying up for studs like Taylor, Swift, Jefferson, & Mclaurin and punting the other positions. When Two players combine for almost 100 points and 7% ownership, this will work.
Ceiling
For a lineup like this, the floor is so low that you need an elite player to hit their maximum ceiling to have any kind of chance. Not only did that happen, but there were two studs that hit their ceiling and almost combined for 100 points. (Taylor & Jefferson) You have a couple more solid performances from studs like Mclaurin + Swift, a throwback Cam game, an Elijah Moore ceiling game, and this will carry Sanders and Tremble’s low scores to take down the Milli Maker.
The total score was 230 points and Taylor + Jefferson scored 96.40 of those points. Meaning the rest of the roster had to score 133.6 points across 7 roster spots in the Milli Maker - a 19 point average. With Mclaurin, Swift, Cam, and Elijah Moore, this was easily achievable as they each averaged 27.16 points.
Sanders, Tremble, and the Lions DST combined for an 8.3 point average but the other 6 roster spots carried a high enough average that the 25.5 point average per position was met. Taylor + Jefferson busted through the ceiling and pulled players with them.
What can we learn from this lineup? Play several studs at low ownership and even a low EV lineup can be good enough one week to win the Milli Maker.
We gave you Jonathan Taylor in our player pool last week despite a tough matchup so join us each and every week as we preview the Milli Maker on Makin A Milli.
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