On Sunday someone in our DFS slack group said, "It seems like every week there are a few chalk busters and if you don't have one or two of them, you're toast."
That was the story of Week 13 in cash. In cash, I didn't do so well. In Single entry and 3 max tournaments, I did my best. This is where I got away from some of the high priced Chalk Running Backs so go figure.
We tackled this question on The Fantasy Fling Podcast last week and it was a big part of my write-up on the Hot & Dive plays for the Week 13 Draft King's main slate:
Henry or Cook? Who was the right RB play over 9K in week 13?
The answer was definitely not Henry. You could still cash if you played Cook, but the path to cashing was easier if you went with Montgomery and another back in the 5K-7k range to make room for Davante Adams.
We record the podcast on Wednesday and obviously a lot of NFL news comes down from Wed-Sun morning, so on Wednesday I was leaning Henry, but I rolled Cook into the majority of my Cash lineups when the news came down that Alexander Mattison wasn't playing. The fear of paying $9500 for a RB that might have his workload managed was gone once we knew his backup wasn't going to play.
As I mentioned in last week's lineup review, I'm going to start to limit my exposure to players once they hit a certain salary because you can still eat the chalk and lose if there are a wide enough range of less chalky RB's having big days at far cheaper salaries. (Especially if they pay up for a Chalky Waller who smashes 40+ points)
I basically went with two different constructions in my cash lineup and one cashed, while the other didn't as you'll see below.
Now when you look at the first 3 positions, I'm doing great with 77 points out of 1/3 of my players. Even if I just got that many points from the next 6 roster spots, I would pass the cash line which for that cash contest was150 points. However, I got 58.90 points the rest of the way which was a 9.81 average - giving me an average of 15 points per player - about a point and a half below the average of 16.5 for each player to hit the money line.
My biggest failure here was Ekeler. His usage was so high for his first week back and he looked to be in a great spot to get 3X... but got into a really negative gamescript where the Chargers were outcoached by Belichick and shutout to the tune of 45-0. Pair that with Cooks getting a concussion in the third quarter and it's just really hard to get there with the rest of my roster in this one. The bulk of my cash was in the RB position and I didn't have the salary for a WR above 7K like Adams to bring it home.
it wasn't all bad as I had some high scoring cash lineups where I faded Cook/Ekeler and swapped Cooks for Adams and scored from 166-177 points. In these lineups, I really wanted some exposure to Jonathan Taylor as I thought he was in line for a big day and it paid off getting Taylor/Adams into my lineups. Jonathan Taylor was one of those Chalk Busters. James Robinson was another one hitting about 3X at 10% ownership. If you rostered Booker who was more chalk and got 6 points, you can see how several of these other chalk busters at relatively the same price beat out your roster.
Last, I did my best in some of the single entry and 3max contests, but damn the tilt was on when I watched 2 of my players fumble at the goal line and thus a swing of 14 points that would of got me to 200 points in a couple of contests..and several hundred more dollars.
Oh it doesn't end there..
Anytime you profit in tournaments, it's a good day, but listen to this week's Fantasy Fling Podcast while I take a Walk of Shame and tell you how a costly last minute mistake kept me from having a big day.. a mistake I won't be making in Week 14. Or ever again.
We'll have your DFS Week 14 preview by Thursday morning. Follow us on Itunes or spotify and subscribe so you never miss an episode!
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