Most of the talk leading up to the main slate was how gross the games were with some of the best players being in prime time on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. We lost 2 games off the main slate and were forced to build lineups for 9 games. Furthermore, many games that were still played on Sunday had their own issues with covid and injuries. Would lineups be chalkier? Most people thought so and while I knew the most likely probability was a chalky lineup winning the Milli Maker, there was also the probability that the chalk wouldn't hit and a very contrarian lineup would take it down. This was my strategy but I'm not writing this as a Millionaire today. Would the scheduling chaos result in a lower scoring winning lineup? Let’s take a look.
Stacking
Huntley - 35.90
Andrews - 38.60
Adams - 16.40
(QB + TE + Opp. WR)
Total - 90.9
AVG - 30.3
Kirk - 24.40
A.ST.Brown - 23.50
(WR + Opp. WR)
Total - 47.90
AVG - 23.95
Cooks - 32.20
Hou DST - 10
(WR + DST)
Total - 42.20
AVG - 21.10
We had stacks on stacks on stacks here. The 3 stacks combined for 181 points and a 25 point average per position. Just above the 24.66 average needed to win the Milli Maker this week.
Roster %
Huntley - 2.64%
Wilson - 12.84%
Foreman - 10.78%
Cooks - 18.87%
Kirk - 16.23%
St. Brown - 8.76%
Andrews - 11.29%
Adams - 34.93%
Texans - 3.66%
Total - 120%
This was higher than we had seen but we could predict this was coming with games getting moved to Monday/Tuesday. Having a chalkier Milli Maker winning lineup was reflective of the 9 game slate.
Leverage
Huntley at 2.64%
Huntley was the top leverage play at QB because he was the top scorer and only 2% owned. He was leverage off of chalkier plays like Rodgers, Tua, Jimmy, Kyler, & Dak.
Wilson & Foreman at (12% and 10%) There weren’t too many options at RB this week with all the covid and injuries so Wilson and Foreman were leverage off of chalky options like Robinson at 50% and Gaskin at 23%. These two finished top 3 near 10% ownership and an average price tag of $5100.
Amon-Ra ST. Brown at 8.76%. Amon was under 10% ownership and was leverage off Deebo, Devante, Davante and Diontae.
Andrews at 11.29%. The top scoring TE on the slate was leverage off of 22% owned Kittle and 22% owned Gesicki.
Even though this build was chalky by Milli Maker winning standards, getting off of plays like Robinson, Gaskin, and getting the top QB (and stack) on the slate at 2% ownership, was leverage off of the field to bink the Milli Maker.
Pricing
$8900 - Adams - 1.84X
$6400 - Andrews - 6.03X
$5800 - Cooks - 5.55X
$5400 - Huntley - 6.64X
$5300 - Kirk - 4.60X
$5200 - A. St. Brown - 4.51X
$5200 - Foreman - 3.55\X
$5000 - Wilson - 4.58X
$2800 - Texans - 3.57X
$50,000 - Total - 4.54X
Every week in the Milli Maker winning lineup we’ve seen at least one position hit 6X or more from a fantasy points per dollar perspective, and this lineup had two with Huntley and Andrews - in the same stack! We really only had one pay up option here with Adams at $8900 and every other position was below $6500. In fact we had 7 positions at $5800 or less. Generally, the Milli Maker winners have a solid core of players in the 5K-7K range instead of 2-3 elite salary players mixed with some stone cold minimums.
Ceiling
We talk about ceiling and stacking a lot and this lineup was a textbook example of why you stack. Is the optimal lineup going to score more points? Absolutely, but what are the odds of guessing 9 different optimal players within a $50,000 salary cap? Well, 191,000 couldn’t do it but yet this lineup full of stacks “got there”. In regards to stacking, you’re targeting a few different good plays in good game environments. If they hit as they did here, your odds of binking the milli maker are much better when those 3 stacks combine for 181 points, as opposed to trying to nail down 9 different one offs. Wphsu99 only had to nail 2 one offs and did so here with Wilson and Foreman who combined for 41.40 points. These two one offs combined for an average of 20.7 points but the stacks of 7 players combined for a 25 point average. This year, just over 220 points has been a high enough ceiling to take down a large field GPP like the Milli Maker.
That’s going to be a wrap for the Milli Maker Week 15 Recap. Join us Friday Night on Makin A Milli as we go live to preview the Week 16 Milli Maker on Draft King’s!
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