After weeks of low scoring, recently we've seen an uptick in scoring which translated to higher scores in the Milli Maker. Week 16's winner had a winning lineup of 268 points and Week 17 had a winning score of 250 points - not far behind was Awesemo's first of two lineups in the top 20. Awesemo's top lineup was 6 points out of first place and good enough for 7th place in Week 17 of the Milli Maker. In 2022 I want to focus more on creating content based on reviewing the top DFS players in the world so what better way to kick it off than including Awesemo in this lineup review for the start of 2022? Let's take a look!
Stacking
Burrow - 37.84
Chase - 58.60
Williams - 25.70
(QB + WR + Opp. RB)
Total - 122.14
AVG - 40.71
Berrios - 26.70
Gronk - 21.50
(WR + Opp. TE)
Total - 48.20
AVG - 24.10
In back to back weeks, we saw Burrow and Chase end up in the Milli Maker winning lineup. In week 16 the stack was THICK as it consisted of Burrow/Mixon/Chase/Higgins and Andrews was the bring back. Week 17 wasn't quite as thick but still had Burrow, Chase, and a bring back. Awesemo had a similar stack as you'll see later in the write-up.
This week we also had a secondary stack of Berrios and Gronk that totaled 48.20 points. Similar to what we saw in week 16, we had 5 players in stacks that combined for 170 points. Stacking is still king in GPP's.
Ownership
Burrow - 7.97%
Michel - 24.01%
Williams - 15.68%
Cooks - 13.72%
Chase - 4.48%
Berrios - 22.43%
Gronk - 6.89%
Patterson - 8.45%
Bears - 10.96%
Total - 114.59%
At first look, I was a little surprised that 114% total ownership took down the Milli Maker on a slate of 14 games but when you see the RB chalk hit, this is a direct reflection of that.
Leverage
Burrow at 7.97%
Burrow was the top QB on the slate and came in at under 8% ownership. Most QB’s on the slate varied between 5-8% ownership but Burrow was leverage off of the Chalkiest QB play of the week - Trey Lance at 23%.
Patterson at 8.45%
Patterson actually finished outside the top 10 in RB scoring but produced 4.33X his salary and was leverage off chalkier, more expensive plays like Montgomery and Taylor.
Chase at 4.48%
If you didn’t have Chase in your lineup, you probably weren’t winning a large field GPP. He produced 58 points to the tune of 7.71X! At under 5% ownership, Chase was leverage off of everybody.
Pricing
$7600 Chase - 7.71X
$6900 Burrow - 5.48X
$6200 Gronk - 3.46X
$6000 Cooks - 3.26X
$5800 Michel - 3.25X
$5800 Williams - 4.43X
$4800 Patterson - 4.33X
$3700 Berrios - 7.21X
$3200 Bears - 6.56X
Total - $50,000 - 5.07X
An ongoing trend in the Milli Maker Winners is one player in the 7-8K range and a lineup built around great plays in the 5-6K range, with a couple of cheap value plays sprinkled on top. This one took the cake with 3 RB’s priced at an average of $5466, three WR’s priced at an average of $5766, the TE priced at $6200, and the QB priced at $6900. Furthermore, the pay up options at DST continue to pay off as the Bears hit 6.56X of their salary at $3200. This winning lineup had 3 players produce over 6X - and 2 produce over 7X - which is not something we’ve seen happen often this year in Milli Maker WInning lineups. This was enough to carry the entire lineup to an average of over 5X - another rarity this season in Milli Maker winning lineups.
Awesemo Lineup Review
Stacking
Burrow - 37.84
Chase - 58.60
Uzomah - 7.20
(QB + WR + TE)
Total - 103.64
AVG - 34.54
With just Burrow and Chase, Awesemo crushes this stack with an average of 48 points per player. Uzomah was a great stacking piece at his salary + in this game environment but he just didn't get there to Bink the Milli Maker this week.
Ownership
Burrow - 7.97%
Michel - 24.01%
Singletary - 15.04%
Amon. St. Brown - 8.07%
Chase - 4.48%
Meyers - 3.23%
Uzomah - 8.25%
Montgomery - 26.08%
Saints - 7.74%
Total - 104.87%
Total ownership here was more in line with what we see from Milli Maker Winners and where I expected it to land on a 14 game slate as I had the optimizer set for a 110% max, but the winning lineup ended up being slightly higher with Berrios and Michel combining for almost 50% ownership.
Leverage
Burrow at 7.97%
Burrow was the top QB on the slate and came in at under 8% ownership. Most QB’s on the slate varied between 5-8% ownership but Burrow was leverage off of the Chalkiest QB play of the week - Trey Lance at 23%.
Chase at 4.48%
If you didn’t have Chase in your lineup, you probably weren’t winning a large field GPP. He produced 58 points to the tune of 7.71X! At under 5% ownership, Chase was leverage off of everybody.
Amon-Ra St. Brown at 8.07%
Amon-Ra St. Brown was another great leverage play on the field at over 6X his salary and 8% ownership. The fact that Awesemo had both Chase and St. Brown in his lineup just goes to show why he’s the best DFS player in the business.
Meyers at 3.23%
was another solid leverage play at 3.23% ownership. He hit over 4X his salary and was leverage off of Chalky plays like Kupp, Cooks, and Beckham.
Pricing
$7600 Chase - 7.71X
$6900 Burrow - 5.48X
$6500 Montgomery - 3.24X
$6000 Amron St. Brown - 6.4X
$5800 Michel - 3.25X
$5400 Singletary - 4.81X
$5100 Meyers - 4.17X
$3400 Saints - 4.41X
$3300 Uzomah - 2.18X
Total - $50,000 - 4.62X
From a pricing standpoint, Awesemo's lineup here is very similar to the winning lineup. Chase was the highest priced player at $7600, RB's were a bit higher priced with an average price of $5900, WR's were higher priced at an average price of $6200, and thus the pay down at TE for $3300 compared to Gronk at $6200 in the winning lineup. The main difference really being at tight end. A total of 4.62X is normally good enough to win it all by Milli Maker winning standards but fell short this week with the mark being over 5X.
People always say that you're throwing your money away into the Milli Maker but yet we have top pro's who have won the Milli Maker multiple times and continually put lineups near the top of the leader boards like Awesemo did this week with two lineups in the top 20. To say that Defense and Tight end are extremely volatile positions with a large range of outcomes is like beating a dead horse, but it really was the difference between Awesemo's lineup and first place - beginning in 2022 I'm doing to do a weekly live stream analyzing lineups of the top pros and of course we will continue to review the Milli Maker Winning trends each and every week here and on Makin A Milli.
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