Every week we'll preview the Milli Maker on the 'Makin a Milli' Podcast. We can't preview the Milli Maker & build our lineups without reviewing what we learned from the past winners so I'll be doing a write-up on the winning lineup each and every week. Furthermore, we'll break it down for you on 'Makin a Milli' podcast before we roll the dice once again before lock.
Stacking
The first step in lineup construction for a DFS contest is to look at the various games and decide which games to stack. Now some of the biggest factors when making this decision are the Vegas totals of each game, the roster % of players in the field, pricing, and the floor/ceiling of those players.
Right off the bat, it was clear that Topher1072 decided to fade the Cowboys/Chargers game entirely. That game was the highest projected game on the slate with 55 points, and many thought it could go off to a total of 70+ points. It actually ended up being a dud in regards to DFS, just as Topher wished it would.
Honestly I'm a bit disappointed in myself because I remember thinking that the Falcons/Bucs game could be a shootout as well and Vegas had it with the third highest total at 52 points. Brady ended up producing 30.64 points to the tune of 4.4X and was the 2nd highest scoring QB on the main slate at only $6900. Ageless Brady brought Gronk with him to Tampa and of course this week again in the winning lineup as Gronk has 19.90 points at only $4700. Fournette found his way into this stack & winning milli maker lineup with only 11.60 points. Once again, he gets an A+ on the group project with minimal effort.
The 2nd team stack in this winning lineup was Henry/Lockett. One of the most unlikely stacks to have and bring down such a massive contest, but the two combined for 85.50 points. This game was projected as the 2nd highest scoring game on the slate & Henry provided leverage off of the chalkier plays of Metcalf & AJ Brown. By avoiding the Dallas/LA game stack, and playing a more contrarian team stack of Henry/Lockett that smashed, Topher1072 was able to separate himself from the field before other game considerations.
Note: He did have a stack of Cardinals D/Moore, but at $2900 and 1 point, he could've done a lot better with other options.
Roster %
87.9% was the total ownership of his team which is very impressive considering that he played a chalky Kupp, Gronk, and Brady. However, he got different in every other position as there was no other roster % above 9%. Roster % are as follows: Henry 7%, Fournette 4.8%, Lockett 8.6%, Moore 2.4%, Marvin Jones Jr. 4.7%, and Cardinals D 8.9%. 87.9% was far below the 130% average roster % that we had seen in 14 out of 16 milli maker winners in 2020.
Pricing
Pricing is always a consideration in DFS because there is a salary cap of $50,000 on Draft Kings, so when you have 4 players that average $7,100 each, you're going to need to find some value on the slate. With Brady at $6,900, Henry at $8,200, Lockett at $7,200, and Kupp at $6,000, Topher was looking for value in the rest of his positions. He got it at $5,100 with Fournette, Moore at $4,000 absolutely smashed to almost 7X! (27.40 Points)
Also Gronk at $4,700 produced 4.23X, and Marvin Jones at $4,700 produced 17.5 points, almost another 4x. Cardinals D actually hurt Topher's lineup more than they helped, but the rest of the lineup won for Topher so it didn't matter.
Ceiling
It should go without saying that guys like Brady, Henry, Lockett, Gronk, and even Kupp in Mcvay's offense have a very high ceiling. This 5 player lineup produced 175.84 of the winning 233 points. 2 team stacks and the one off of Kupp. However, there were 2 other players that Topher really needed to hit in order to win and that was Rookie Rondale Moore and Marvin Jones JR. Marvin Jones Jr. has multiple 3-4 touchdown games in his career so his 17.7 points is nowhere his ceiling, but he looks to be the number 1 in Jacksonville's offense so his 17.7 points is actually his average (floor) through 2 games of the NFL Season. We don't know what Rondale Moore's ceiling is but has averaged 18 points in 2 games. Priced at only $4,000 while catching passes from the early MVP Favorite, Kyler Murray, Moore was the kind of play in a projected high scoring game that can win you a $1,000,000. Just ask Topher1072.
Overall, this was an oustanding job building a lineup with 2 team stacks in different high scoring games while fading the chalkiest games/players. Looking forward to getting into this more on 'Makin a Milli' as we begin to look foward to next week.
Join us Weekly on 'Makin a Milli' Podcast as we review/preview Draft King's Milli Maker contest.
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