Week 6 was a return to normalcy. The chalk did not smash and the contrarians felt that order was restored. Roster % was back below 100% as it had been in the prior month of the season before the Week 5 chalk smash, and we saw the early trends of the season continue on despite the week 5 outlier. Let's break it down:
Stacking
We’ve seen a lot of skinny stacks taking down big GPP’s this year. Sometimes it’s just taking small pieces of 1-2 games and then relying on your naked studs to carry you up the leaderboards as they burst into the endzone. I know, I know. What a visual.. Some things you can’t unsee bro! One of the most improbable stacks on the slate was used to get leverage on the field and take down the Milli Maker when Baker and D.P.J. were stacked together in the CLE/AZ game. In hindsight, with no Chubb and a banged up Chalky Hunt, this was the perfect leverage play on the field.
QB + WR
Baker - 15.16
D.P.J - 29.10
Total - 44.26
Average - 22.13
FPTS$ - 5.43X
(Fantasy Points Per Dollar)
RB + DEF
Taylor - 31.80
Colts - 15
Total - 46.80
Average - 23.4
FPTS$ - 4.54X
(Fantasy Points Per Dollar)
Roster %
Mayfield - 1.73%
Taylor - 25.05%
Mixon 15.03%
Lamb - 5.33%
D.P.J. - .85%
Thielen - 5.57%
Fant - 2.66%
Kelce - 21.93%
Colts - 14.89%
Total - 93.04%
Apart from the big jump in roster % in the Week 5 Chalk Smash (115%), the roster % continues to stay below 95% as we’ve seen weeks of 78, 77, 87, 88, and now 93. The average on the season is now at 89.7%.
Leverage
By using Mayfield and Donovan Peoples-Jones in a stack, this lineup construction got direct leverage off of Kareem Hunt who came in at over 32% roster percentage. Mayfield and Donovan Peoples-Jones combined for only 2.58% ownership!
Furthermore, Lamb, Thielen, and Fant were great pivots off some of the chalkier plays in the KC/WFT & LAC/BAL games with guys such as Hill, Andrews, & Ricky Seals-Jones .
Pricing
$7000 Kelce - 2.85X
$6600 Taylor - 4.81X
$6500 Lamb - 6.01X
$6400 Mixon - 4.10X
$5900 Mayfield - 2.56X
$5800 Thielen - 5.65X
$4800 Fant - 5.14X
$3500 D.P.J. - 8.31X
$3500 Colts DST - 4.28X
$50,000 Total - 4.85X
Week 5 we saw the Chalk Smash and that raised the average price of players when you have studs like Henry in the winning lineup, but week 6 was a return to the early season trends we’ve seen in regards to pricing. QB saw it’s 2nd lowest pricing on the season with only $5900 - down from $7400 the week before and bringing the moving average to $6600.
With only 2 RB’s priced in the Mid 6K range, this kept the average RB price in the low 6K range on the season. Falling from a $6050 WR pricing average in Week 5, we saw the moving average this week mirror what we’ve seen in weeks 1-4; Weeks 1-4 the average WR pricing was $5745. Weeks 1-6, the average is $5716. Week 6 was the first time this season that we saw two tight ends in the Milli Maker winning lineup. Judging from the amount of flexed TE’s I saw in DFS Army optimals last week, I wasn’t at all surprised. Once again, I’m telling you guys DFS Army is legit. (Use code FANTASYFLING for 10% off a VIP subscription.)
I figured Kelce could be in line for a big day with the high projected team total on the KC side and had a lot of exposure with RSJ in a game stack, but didn’t expect Kelce to make the winning lineup with under 3X, and have a $4800 Fant flexed in the same lineup. Fant crushed his value at 5.14X and the two combined for an average price of $5900 and about 4X.
The average price of the Tight End continues to drop as the position is more volatile as ever with Kelce and Waller not hitting their usual ceiling. Weeks 1-4 we saw the average pricing at $5275 and the moving average currently sits at $5116.
As we’ve seen time and time again in the Milli Maker, paying up for a Defense in a great matchup is the winning formula for winning a GPP, and the Colts hit 4.28X on their salary this week for 15 points. Maybe I’ll take my own advice this week and play the winning defense like when I recommended the Colts on the Fantasy Fling Podcast last week. The moving average for DST pricing in the Milli is now $3100.
Side note, this was the 2nd week in a row that we saw a WR hit over 8X value and Donovan Peoples-Jones hit the new Milli Maker record on the season with 8.31X!
Ceiling
When building a GPP lineup like for the Milli Maker, I scan each player in the lineup and calculate if my lineup has the kind of ceiling in the range of outcomes to hit 250 points. The winning lineup this week has that 250 point ceiling but 231.86 points was all that was needed in week 6. 25.76 was the average needed from each player. Let’s take a look at the historical ceiling of each player to compute what this lineup is capable of:
Mayfield: 30+
Taylor: 40+
Mixon: 40+
Lamb: 35+
D.P.J.: 29.10 (Debatable to say this is it.)
Thielen: 30-45 (45+ in 2016)
Fant: 25
Kelce: 35+
Colts: 25-30
In one game or another, each player has posted scores within these ranges and thus you have a lineup capable of much higher than 250 if the stars align. This week the outcome was 231.86 which was enough to take down the Milli Maker.
Listen to ‘Makin A Milli’ this Friday as we recap the Milli Maker and preview a Week 7 Milli Maker slate full of tough decisions. Will you navigate through the Bye Week Gauntlet to pick the correct players to win Lucky Number 7? Listen as we give you more Hot Plays this week in our Stacks, Studs, & Sleepers Segment of 'Makin A Milli'
Comments